Hot inflation dims likelihood U.S. Fed can achieve 'soft landing'

For months, Jerome Powell has held out hope that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates high enough to throttle rampant inflation without tipping the economy into recession.

Yet with the Fed set to announce another sharp interest rate hike after it meets this week, days after the government issued a scorching inflation report, the likelihood that the central bank can engineer a so-called “soft landing” appears to be dimming.

With inflation at a four-decade high of 8.6 per cent, Fed officials are likely this year to boost borrowing rates even higher than was expected just weeks ago. The central bank may also signal, when its policy meeting ends Wednesday, the possibility of raising rates to a level that could weaken growth — elevating the risk of a recession.

Some economists now even think the Fed may decide to surprise the financial markets this week by raising its benchmark short-term rate by three-quarters of a point, for the first time since 1994, rather than the half-point that Powell had signaled last month. Wall Street traders have priced in a 30 per cent likelihood of such a drastic move, according to the CME Group.