Hospitalizations are rising thanks to Omicron, but future impact is uncertain: experts
Global News
Modellers say testing gaps and a lack of data about the COVID-19 Omicron variant has them "flying blind" trying to predict how health-care systems could be impacted.
Unprecedented levels of COVID-19 across Canada are driving hospitalizations as well and once again threatening many provincial health-care systems.
Yet experts say it’s too soon to say how much hospitalizations could grow in the days and weeks to come. With testing capacity at its breaking point and data still coming in on Omicron’s severity, they say modelling this latest wave will require updating their methodology.
“We’re flying blind,” said Caroline Colijn, a mathematics professor at Simon Fraser University who has been modelling the pandemic in British Columbia.
“There’s a good chance that by the time we have a clearer picture of where we are and where we might be going, we could be in the middle of a major situation for the health-care system.”
Hospitalizations have always been a lagging indicator in the pandemic, with a rise in patient intakes usually coming weeks after cases start to climb.
This latest, Omicron-fuelled wave has been no different. While cases began to notably increase at the beginning of December, the number of cases in hospital began trending upward two weeks later.
There are now over 2,700 patients in hospital with COVID-19, including nearly 500 in intensive care, a level last seen this past October.
The surge has largely been driven by Ontario and Quebec, where case counts have surpassed 10,000 per day. In Quebec alone, hospitalizations have doubled in just one week, with 939 patients receiving care as of Thursday.