Hal Brands on potential of future conflict with China — "Intelligence Matters"

In this episode of Intelligence Matters, host Michael Morell speaks with Hal Brands, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and author of the new book, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, about China's economic, political and demographic trajectory and the percolating risk of conflict with Beijing in the coming years. Brands explains why he believes China, rather than being on the rise, is peaking as a global power and as a result may engage in more destabilizing behavior. Brands and Morell explore how certain external tailwinds - which once propelled China's rise - have become headwinds, and may be driving President Xi Jinping's tightening grip on political power. They also discuss the effect of Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taipei, different scenarios and timelines for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, as well as how the conflict in Ukraine may - or may not - affect Xi's calculus. 

HIGHLIGHTS: ON CHINA AS A PEAKING POWER: 

"There is prevailing wisdom out there that China is the next global superpower, that it's going to effortlessly zip past the United States, that it'll be the world's greatest economy and so on and so forth. And we think that's wrong. And we think that China is best considered as a peaking power rather than a rising power. Yes, it's got more military power now than it ever has in the past, and that trend will continue. But China's best days are behind it; economically, they're behind it, demographically, they're behind it, politically and in a variety of other ways as well. And this is actually what makes China so dangerous."