Growing number of Conservative voters think Canada gives 'too much support' to Ukraine, poll suggests

As the grim two-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, a new poll suggests Canadians' engagement with the conflict is waning and support for Ukraine is weakening — especially among Conservatives.

A survey released Tuesday morning by the Angus Reid Institute says a quarter of Canadians believe Canada is offering "too much support" to Ukraine in its fight, up from 13 per cent who said the same thing in May 2022.

Conservative supporters are a driving force behind that result, according to the poll.

The percentage of Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in the last election, and who now say Canada is doing too much to assist Ukraine, has more than doubled — from 19 per cent in May 2022 to 43 per cent now — according to the public opinion research group's findings.

"It's ... a massive jump," said Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid Institute. "This has the potential to be something of a political Gordian knot for Pierre Poilievre."

Sorting out the reasons behind the shift is largely an exercise in speculation at this point, said Kurl. 

On the one hand, she said, there's a longstanding tradition of support for the military among Conservative voters. That position may be in tension with Conservative support for small governments and lower taxes, she added.

"I don't want to overemphasize it … but what is burgeoning, what is starting to sort of grow from out of the weeds into a fairly healthy seedling here, is this almost the Trump-esque, 'Canada First' mentality," she said.

"That mindset of conservative is not representative of the majority of the Conservative Party base in the country, or the entirety of the base. It is a minority, but it is a passionate, vocal and growing minority."

The poll suggests the belief that Canada is giving Ukraine too much is also growing among NDP and Liberal voters. The percentage of voters who think Canada is doing too much for Ukraine jumped from 5 to 10 per cent among 2021 Liberal supporters, and from 5 to 12 per cent among 2021 NDP supporters.

Since early 2022, the federal government has committed more than $2.4 billion in military assistance and more than $352 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

The poll landed a day after another emotional debate in the House of Commons over a bill to implement an update to the Canada-Ukraine free trade deal.

The Liberals accused Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and his party of abandoning Ukraine when Conservative MPs voted against the bill in November. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has attributed the opposition to "American MAGA-influenced thinking."

Poilievre, whose party has maintained a large polling lead over Trudeau's Liberals for months, has said his party still supports Ukraine and its objection is to the mention of "carbon pricing" in the legislation.