Global warming now more likely to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold by 2027, scientists warn
The Hindu
For the first time ever, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) of warming within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization said.
For the first time ever, global temperatures are now more likely than not to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) of warming within the next five years, the World Meteorological Organization said on May 17.
But that did not necessarily mean the world would cross the long-term warming threshold of 1.5C above preindustrial levels set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
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With a 66% chance of temporarily reaching 1.5C by 2027, "it's the first time in history that it's more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5C," said Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre who worked on the WMO's latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update.
Last year's report put the odds at about 50-50.
Partially responsible for boosting the chance of hitting 1.5C is an El Nino weather pattern expected to develop in the coming months. During this natural phenomenon, warmer waters in the tropical Pacific heat the atmosphere above, spiking global temperatures.
The El Nino "will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory", said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas in a press statement.