Global growth recovery reflects major economies' resilience: QNB

Doha: QNBaffirmed that the recovery in global growth forecasts for 2025 does not indicate a lack of risks as much as it reflects the ability of major...

Doha: QNB affirmed that the recovery in global growth forecasts for 2025 does not indicate a lack of risks as much as it reflects the ability of major economies to adapt to shocks in a world characterized by rapid change and rising uncertainty.

It highlighted that forecasts were no longer on a fixed linear path, but rather the result of a delicate balance between shocks and resilience, and between risks and opportunities.

In its weekly report, the bank said that end-of-year forecasts for China and the Euro area are better than they were at the beginning of the year, while expectations for the United States declined only slightly, resulting in global economic growth of 3 percent.

The report noted that the beginning of 2025 was marked by cautious optimism, as global economic forecasts experienced sharp fluctuations reflecting the level of uncertainty that has come to dominate the global economic and political landscape. At the start of the year, estimates pointed to steady global economic growth of around 3 percent, supported by easing inflation, continued monetary policy easing, the resilience of the US economy, and an expected cyclical recovery in both the euro area and China.

The report noted that these expectations were soon put to a severe test as US economic policy orientations shifted. Market sentiment began to decline in February, before concerns intensified on Apr. 2, when the new US administration announced unprecedented tariffs on imports, later known as Liberation Day. This sudden shift brought trade war fears back to the forefront and reopened discussions about the likelihood of a global recession.