Georgia's disputed election results raise red flag that Russia will win tug of war with the EU

In the small South Caucasus nation of Georgia, a titanic battle over its future is taking place.

Georgians went to the polls on Saturday in the most important election since the country's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

A gaggle of opposition coalitions set out to jointly bring an end to 12 years of rule by Georgian Dream (GD), a once pro-Western party that has shifted heavily over the past two years toward favouring ties with Russia over those with the European Union and the United States.

It has been a startling reversal of course for the country, where polls regularly show that upwards of 80 per cent of Georgians support joining the EU. While this remains the publicly stated goal of GD, relations have degraded so badly over the party's increasing authoritarianism that Brussels officially froze Georgia's EU candidacy in June, just months after granting it.

The immediate impetus for the move was the implementation of a much-criticized Russian-style law on "foreign agents," passed by Georgia's parliament in May despite massive street protests against it. (The law enables government agencies to effectively dismantle any civil society organization at a whim.)

There were few expectations that Saturday's parliamentary election would occur in a free and fair environment — the pre-election period had already been marred by government pressure and harassment against the opposition. As the voting progressed, widespread instances of vote-buying, ballot box-stuffing and other fraudulent procedures carried out by GD and its allies were recorded.

The International Republican Institute, a U.S.-based organization aimed at improving democracy abroad, noted the ruling party's massive use of administrative resources, among other concerns. WeVote, a Georgian elections watchdog, reported "more than 900" instances of irregularities from its observers on the day of the vote.

There was an atmosphere of uncertainty around the election's immediate turnout itself. At the headquarters of Coalition 4 Change, one of the main opposition blocs, CBC News saw initial jubilation as exit polls — released as voting closed at 8 p.m. local time on Saturday — showed an opposition victory. Another set of exit polls, however, commissioned by GD's affiliate media, indicated a government victory.

The two diametrically opposed results were decided in favour of the government an hour later, as the Central Election Commission released the final vote counts. The final results gave about 54 per cent to Georgian Dream — an outcome soon contested by the opposition.

While the full scale of alleged electoral fraud is still being investigated, experts say there's little doubt that the ruling party falsified the results through an array of methods.

"The Georgian Dream government in recent years has undertaken a coup, an unlawful seizure of power, executed methodically and systematically," said Hans Gutbrod, a professor of public policy at Ilia State University in Tbilisi, Georgia's capital. "They've captured all state institutions, including the courts, and can now do what they want — including taking the country in another direction."

That other direction would be back into the arms of Russia, Georgia's northern neighbour and longtime colonial master. Moscow was quick to congratulate Georgian Dream on its victory — "Georgians have won [today], well done!" Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of Russian state broadcaster RT, wrote on her X account shortly after voting ended.

While it might seem absurd that a country that was invaded by Russia just 16 years ago could swing back toward favouring relations with Moscow, Georgian Dream's total party control over state institutions means that authorities can ignore public sentiment, Gutbrod said.

"The ruling party uses intimidation, distraction and bribery, as well as highly divisive politics, to ensure that it can do what it wants — both in terms of foreign policy and in the massive plunder through corruption," he said.