Gauging China's power rebound potential after trade truce: Maguire

Trade truce lowers tariffs, easing tensions between US and China, impacting power generation, emissions, manufacturing output, and exports.

On paper, the trade truce is only a temporary measure that could be reversed if either side feels unfairly treated during negotiations.

But the sharp lowering in tariffs for the truce's duration marks a significant de-escalation in trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, and should spur a recovery in sentiment and output among Chinese manufacturers.

Below are some key metrics that can be used to track how the reduction in trade tensions may impact power generation, emissions, manufacturing output and trade volumes in China over the coming months.

The share of clean power sources within China's overall electricity generation mix will take a hit as factory production picks up across the country.

Clean power sources accounted for a record 39% of China's electricity supplies during the first quarter of 2025, data from Ember shows, helped by an 18% jump in clean electricity output from the same period in 2024 to 950 TWh.

In part, clean energy's greater share of the generation mix was due to Beijing's ongoing push to reduce dependence on fossil fuels for power, which has resulted in steady increases in clean power generation capacity.

However, the subdued tone of China's manufacturing sector during the January to March window also contributed to the higher clean power share.