G7: Why there is hope of a Carney-Trump tariff breakthrough at Alberta summit

Global trade will be a major focus at next week's G7 summit as world leaders gather in Alberta, including U.S. President Donald Trump, who will be making his first appearance at a major international event since returning to the White House in January.

Experts and ambassadors are expressing some optimism that this type of event could be a difference-maker in convincing Trump to reduce the amount of tariffs charged on imports to the U.S.

Any possible concessions on the trade front would be welcomed by countries such as Canada, that are facing economic hardship because of tariffs.

"It's issue No. 1," said John Kirton, director of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto. 

On Wednesday, CBC News and Radio-Canada reported that talks between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Donald Trump are advanced enough that a document containing a draft economic and security agreement has been exchanged between the Prime Minister's Office and the White House.

Ottawa is stepping up its efforts in recent weeks to reach an agreement before the end of the G7 summit.

Global trade has slowed as a result of the ever-changing tariffs announced by Trump that have targeted various countries and also certain materials, such as steel and aluminum. In response, many countries, including Canada, have enacted their own tariffs.

Canada's unemployment rate has climbed to seven per cent, which economists say is a sign the trade war with the U.S. is taking a toll on the job market, especially the manufacturing sector.

Trade and tariffs are the "make or break issue" that will determine whether the summit in the Alberta Rocky Mountain village of Kananaskis Country is a success or not, said Kirton.

For now, he's hopeful the various leaders' meetings and one-on-one conversations could produce results. 

"[Trump] likes to deliver big wins and the other G7 leaders are smart enough to deliver agreements which are real wins," said Kirton, pointing to how countries could pledge to increase defence spending and make other commitments, in exchange for lower tariffs on imports into the U.S.

World leaders, including Carney, Trump and leaders from France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom, as well as the European Union, are meeting in Alberta from June 15 to 17 for talks on a variety of other issues, including climate change and managing rapidly evolving technology.

The summit is a high-profile event, yet only involves a handful of world leaders, which is noteworthy, said Gary Mar, CEO of the Canada West Foundation, an Alberta-based think-tank.

"One of the reasons the G7 is effective is because it's a small group. It's small enough that it's focused and can really be productive," said Mar, who was part of the welcoming party at the Calgary airport when world leaders arrived for the last summit held in Kananaskis in 2002.