Food prices could jump by up to 5% in 2025, and researchers say the loonie is partly to blame
CBC
An annual report on food prices in Canada is predicting more pressure on grocery costs in the coming year — but it also notes that some prices in 2024 were lower than predicted.
The Food Price Report, released Thursday, is forecasting that Canadians will see the biggest price jumps next year in meat and vegetables, along with a jump in the cost to eat at restaurants.
Food prices overall are estimated to increase by three to five per cent compared to 2024 — higher than the Bank of Canada's inflation target of between one and three per cent.
That means a family of four would pay about $800 more for food in 2025 — roughly $66 extra a month — if food inflation hits the highest point the academics predict.
The annual report is published by a group of universities, including Halifax's Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of British Columbia and the University of Saskatchewan.
"We are expecting a difficult year, unfortunately, for families," said Sylvain Charlebois, lead researcher on the project and a professor at Dalhousie University.
This year, researchers on the project also used several artificial intelligence models to help estimate changes in food prices, though the authors wrote that they had human experts weigh in on the AI results as well.
Though costs had been predicted to increase by 2.5 to 4.5 per cent, food inflation rose by 2.8 per cent — meaning an increase of $436 for a family of four through the year — bringing total food spending for that family to $16,032. Had the higher end of those predictions come to pass, they would have spent $264 on top of that.
Charlebois told CBC News that 2024 may have seen a bit of a slowdown when it comes to food inflation, but he believes 2025 could see things track back upward.
"A lot of people didn't feel it, but 2024 was actually a bit of a break year, compared to the last few years ... in Germany, the food inflation rate is starting to rise again at the same level as Canada. So we're not alone in this," said Charlebois in an interview, speaking from Berlin.
This year, meat, vegetables and restaurant prices are likely to increase faster than other products, Charlebois said.
"Those are the three categories that are likely gonna push food inflation higher next year," he said.
The Food Price Report is predicting that meat will top its list of food inflation, going up by between four and six per cent. This matches reports from beef industry experts, who have said their product has been hitting record prices.
Restaurants and vegetables are predicted to see inflation of between three to five per cent.
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