Examining Aaron Judge’s path to breaking Barry Bonds’ home run record

After home run No. 300, Juan Soto tried to envision the even greater — and more historic — milestone that might await Aaron Judge. 

“I hope he breaks the home-run record,” Soto said Wednesday in referencing Barry Bonds’ 762 career home runs. “Why not? I think he’s the guy who can literally break the record. He’s been showing it off every time. I hope he got the health to do it. I’m going to enjoy it as much as I can, too.” 

If Soto can try to pin down where Judge, a unique superstar in just about every way — including his relatively late-in-baseball-life breakout — eventually might land, why can’t we? 

To start with: It is very, very unlikely that Judge threatens the all-time marks of Bonds and Henry Aaron (755 career homers) in part because Bonds debuted at 21, Aaron at 20 and Judge at 24, not breaking through until his age-25 season.

The 32-year-old Judge likely will finish his year in the 315-homer neighborhood; Bonds already had smacked 374 and Aaron 442 before they reached 33. 

Judge was fastest to 300 by games played (955) and at-bats (3,431), both by significant margins, but his long journey to the majors — spending three years at Fresno State before three seasons in the minors — would hurt him if he wants to hunt down the all-time greats.