Europe faces 'unprecedented risk' of gas shortage: International Energy Agency

The Paris-based IEA said in its quarterly gas report that European Union countries would need to reduce use by 13% over the winter in case of a complete Russian cut-off amid the war in Ukraine.

“Europe faces “unprecedented risks” to its natural gas supplies this winter after Russia cut off most pipeline shipments and could wind up competing with Asia for already scarce and expensive liquid gas that comes by ship,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

The Paris-based IEA said in its quarterly gas report released on Monday that European Union (EU) countries would need to reduce use by 13% over the winter in case of a complete Russian cut-off amid the war in Ukraine. “Much of that cutback would have to come from consumer behaviour such as turning down thermostats by one degree and adjusting boiler temperatures as well as industrial and utility conservation,” the group said.

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The EU on September 30 agreed to mandate a reduction in electricity consumption by at least 5% during peak price hours. Just a trickle of Russian gas is still arriving in pipelines through Ukraine to Slovakia and across the Black Sea through Turkey to Bulgaria. Two other routes, under the Baltic Sea to Germany and through Belarus and Poland, have shut down.

Another hazard in the study was a late winter cold snap, which would be particularly challenging because underground gas reserves flow more slowly at the end of the season due to less gas and lower pressure in the storage caverns. The EU has already filled storage to 88%, ahead of its goal of 80% before winter. The IEA assumed 90% would be needed in its Russian cut-off scenario.

Businesses in Europe have already cut back natural gas use, sometimes simply by abandoning energy-intensive activity such as making steel and fertilizer, while smaller businesses such as bakeries are feeling a severe crimp in their costs.