Electricity emissions sinking Ontario’s climate goals, internal docs say

Back in October 2024, the Ford government was on course to exceed its 2030 target of getting greenhouse gas emissions at or below 28 per cent of their 2005 levels.

Ontario slipped from being in a position to achieve its current emissions target to likely missing it mainly because of increased emissions from electricity generation, government documents reveal.

Back in October 2024, the Ford government was on course to exceed its 2030 target of getting greenhouse gas emissions at or below 28 per cent of their 2005 levels, an internal analysis shows.

An update in January 2025, however, significantly worsened the projections and put the province in a position where it can likely no longer hit its goal.

Although the two models were put together just three months apart, the difference was significant. An internal document obtained by Global News using freedom of information laws shows the change was driven by electricity policies in Ontario.

“This forecast is about 8 Mt higher than the October 2024 forecast, mainly due to higher electricity sector emissions that reflect latest ENERGY/IESO energy planning and assumptions,” the document said.

The analysis released to Global News does not specifically say what changes in electrical power generation and policy forced the government to revise its projections.

Some of the emissions increases in Ontario’s electricity supply likely come from the growing role given to gas plants in recent years.

Earlier this year, the rate of electricity produced by natural gas rose to its highest level since 2012 as the government relied on it to make up for temporarily lost nuclear generation this decade.