El Niño is back. Here's what it means for Canada
CBC
It was long anticipated, and now it's here.
The global weather pattern El Niño has returned for the first time in seven years, according to the World Meteorological Organization, setting the stage for further extreme weather and soaring temperatures.
The UN agency made the declaration on Tuesday, after months of forecasting suggesting the weather pattern was likely to return.
"The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean," WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas said in a statement Tuesday.
While it's a natural phenomenon, this is the first time El Niño has happened on top of a baseline of so much human-caused warming, making the WMO say it is "playing out in uncharted waters."
Here's a breakdown of how El Niño works, and what its return could mean for Canada.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
(The opposite is La Niña, where the surface of the Pacific ocean cools).
Together, the El Niño/La Niña cycle is referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years, and typically lasts nine to 12 months.
It has been linked to extreme weather conditions, from heavy rainfall in South America to drought in Australia and parts of Asia.
The WMO said there is a 90 per cent probability this latest El Niño event will continue through the second half of 2023 and is expected to be at least of "moderate strength."
The world's hottest year on record, 2016, coincided with a strong El Niño — the last one before this year.
Regardless of where it is in the El Niño/La Niña cycle, the earth is warming due to increased CO2 in the atmosphere.
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