Edmonton’s housing affordability edge could slip in 2026: Conference Board of Canada

Edmonton's reputation for being one of Canada's most affordable cities to live in may take a dip this year, according to the Conference Board of Canada’s economic forecast for 2026. 

In its report — “Major City Insights: Edmonton—January 2026” — released Tuesday, the CBoC says population growth in the city is expected to taper off after surging the past few years.

Housing prices have gone up and sluggish oil prices have limited Edmonton’s manufacturing capacity, the report says. 

“Slowing population growth and soft employment have dramatically cooled Edmonton’s previously vigorous existing home market,” the report says. 

Richard Forbes, the CBoC’s principal economist, said the projections are for the near future. 

"Short term, it's going to be pretty bumpy,” he said in an interview with CBC News. 

“The federal government has cut its immigration targets, while rising local house prices are eroding the area’s enviable residential affordability that attracted other Canadians,” the report says. 

Edmonton’s population surged in 2023 and 2024, with an estimated net influx of more than  46,500 people, the report says. 

The CBoC estimates net immigration fell to about 8,900 newcomers in 2025 and will dip again, to about 5,500 in 2026. 

The non-profit research organization then expects a rebound with more than 10,500 net arrivals in 2027, and about 19,000 people between 2028 and 2030.

During the rush of newcomers arriving in Edmonton in 2023 and 2024, not all were able to find work. The unemployment rate rose to about eight per cent in 2025, up from 5.9 per cent in 2022, the report says. 

The CBoC expects the unemployment rate to hover around 7.9 per cent in 2026. 

The services sector will add jobs this year, the organization projects, fuelled by 6,800 new jobs in retail trade and a further 5,200 positions in health care, which will more than outweigh losses in the goods sector. 

“Edmonton continues to be an affordable city by national standards, but this advantage has been eroded by previously healthy price growth,” the report says.