Economists predict GDP gained slightly in Q4 but declined on per-capita basis

Economists say gross domestic product (GDP) figures in the fourth quarter likely ticked slightly higher, but not enough to offset a per capita decline.

In a report Friday, Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at RBC, and Carrie Freestone, an economist at RBC, said that the Bank of Canada will closely monitor Canada’s GDP data following January inflation data that came in less than three per cent. The economists predict fourth-quarter GDP figures to “remain in positive territory” with a slight annual gain of 0.5 per cent. 

“That will prevent the economy from seeing two consecutive quarters of contraction, which is often used as the definition of a ‘technical’ recession,” the report said. 

“But when measured against the country’s rapid population growth, it’s the sixth straight quarterly decline on a per-capita basis, alongside a rising unemployment rate.”