Economic uncertainty looms over spring sitting of Alberta legislature

As the Alberta government heads into a spring legislative sitting on Tuesday pledging to follow through with auto insurance reform and tweaking professional regulatory college powers, political observers say much of the public's focus will be on the budget.

"It is important to note that this session is not occurring within a bubble," government House leader Joseph Schow told reporters at the legislature on Monday.

"We are in the midst of a moment of global uncertainty with geopolitical change and shifting markets."

Brendan Boyd, MacEwan University associate professor of political science, says the threat of U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports leaves the government's finance department in a baffling predicament trying to predict the average price of oil for the next year while estimating resource revenues.

"I just don't know how you would even do that job right now," Boyd said in an interview Monday.

Alberta Finance Minister Nate Horner had warned last fall that the prospect of tariffs on oil and gas could put a balanced provincial budget at risk.

U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports are supposed to be paused until March 4, five days after Horner will table the provincial budget.

Although the government could plan to spend conservatively, Boyd said politicians must also consider the potential unpopularity of program cuts as the United Conservative Party approaches the midpoint of its four-year mandate.

Boyd said Danielle Smith's government will also struggle to deflect attention from allegations of conflicts of interest and political pressure in how some public health contracts were awarded.

Former Alberta Health Services CEO Athana Mentzelopoulos has sued the health minister and AHS for wrongful dismissal. Her statement of claim alleges she was politically pressured to renew contracts with private surgical facilities at prices higher than other vendors receive. She also alleges she was fired after launching probes into contracting.

The allegations have not been proven in court. The premier and health minister have denied any wrongdoing.

Boyd says the allegations could erode public support for the government's work to divide control of health care into four separate organizations and contract out more work to private providers.

"I don't see this going away any time soon," Boyd said. "How much does this overtake everything else that the government is trying to do, and disrupt some of their big-ticket items, like health-care reform?"

Schow said on Monday the government plans to table 20 pieces of legislation in the spring sitting, which is scheduled to run until May 15 with two week-long constituency breaks.