Doug Ford's PCs to outline re-election roadmap in Thursday's mini-budget

Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives will reveal more of their re-election strategy on Thursday, when Ontario's finance minister delivers the government's fall economic statement. 

This annual mini-budget takes on special importance this year for two reasons: it will flesh out the government's roadmap for Ontario's economic recovery post-COVID-19 and it will preview the PC Party's 2022 election platform. 

There's a range of evidence — including some hints dropped by Ford and his ministers — that suggests tax cuts could feature prominently in the fall economic statement, to be unveiled in the legislature at 1 p.m. by Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy.

Ford's PCs made promises in the 2018 election campaign of corporate and income tax cuts that have yet to be fulfilled, with just six months left in the government's mandate.

Ontario's fiscal watchdog, the Financial Accountability Office, flagged the possibility of coming tax cuts after noticing this spring that the government's projections for future tax revenue are lower than what the usual math would suggest.

"These revenue shortfalls might be explained by potential planned tax cuts," said its report in June. 

Ministers have made references to "more take-home pay" (possibly code for a broad-based income tax cut or tax credit) and talked of making Ontario "the best place to do business" (which could mean a cut to corporate taxes).

However, a senior PC Party source told CBC News there will be no corporate tax cuts in Thursday's mini-budget.   

Ontario's corporate tax rate is currently 11.5 per cent. Ford's PCs promised in the 2018 election campaign to lower it to 10.5 per cent. 

The PCs also promised last campaign to reduce the rate of the second-lowest income tax bracket — earnings between $45,000 and $90,000 — by one-fifth. 

"The worst place you can hand your money over is to the government," Ford said at a news conference in Tecumseh, Ont., last month. "We have a different theory: put more money into people's pockets." 

Asked by CBC News if the fall economic statement will include tax cuts, Bethlenfalvy responded, "Well, show up on Thursday, and we'll let you know." 

In his recent news conferences previewing the mini-budget, Bethlenfalvy has emphasized what he calls "building Ontario" as a way of revving up the economic recovery and providing needed infrastructure. 

"You've seen a number of announcements over the past three years under the leadership of Doug Ford and our government to build things, not just talk about things, but build Ontario," Bethlenfalvy said at the minimum wage announcement in Milton on Tuesday.