Donald Trump won 12% of the Manhattan vote. Can he get a fair trial there?

If Donald Trump were to be put on trial anywhere in New York, the borough of Manhattan may be the worst place for the former president.

"Ask people in Manhattan today is he guilty of anything ... I'd assume, 95 per cent of the people would say, well, of course he's guilty," said Mark Bederow, a criminal defence attorney and former New York City prosecutor.

This is the challenge now facing Trump as he seeks an impartial jury and fair trial in a Manhattan courtroom following his indictment by a Manhattan grand jury on charges relating to hush money payments made in 2016 to porn actress Stormy Daniels.

Although Trump spent almost 70 years of his life in New York City, and was himself a Manhattanite, his long time residency there hasn't necessarily endeared him to his hometown.

If the 2020 presidential election results are any gauge of his popularity, the state itself was won by Joe Biden by little over 60 per cent, compared to the 38 per cent garnered by Trump.

But in Manhattan's New York county, Trump was particularly unpopular and trounced, receiving just slightly over 12 per cent of the vote. (He got 27 per cent in his hometown of Queens.)

Trump himself has argued that in this case, the legal deck is stacked against him, posting on his Truth Social Thursday night that the indictment was brought on, in part, because "they know I cannot get a fair trial in New York!"

On this particular point, Matthew J. Galluzzo, a former prosecutor in the Manhattan district attorney's office, believes Trump may have a legitimate argument; finding jurors who can put aside their personal animus against him may be difficult.

"In Manhattan there's been so much publicity about this indictment, about this case, and there is so much vitriol toward him," Galluzzo said. "He is not a popular person in Manhattan. You could imagine people wanting to convict him just because he is who he is, regardless of what the evidence is that comes down."

Some of the Wall Street finance crowd could potentially be sympathetic jurors but jury pools in Manhattan often consist of lawyers, doctors, artists, or recent college graduates — jurors who would not be considered "Trump's people," Galluzzo said. 

"I think it's going to be extremely difficult to find 12 jurors willing to acquit," he said.

Defendants can get their cases transferred from one county to another, Gallluzzo said, but it's rare that such an application is granted by a judge. As well, deciding where in New York state may be fairer to Trump could also prove difficult.

"We're supposed to look at the election results? We're supposed to poll?  I don't really know how we can decide," he said.  "What is fair?"

With so much emotion tied to the former president, either for or against, "I think it's hard to find an impartial jury on this planet, frankly," Galluzzo said.