Donald Trump's tariff threats could spark an early Ontario election
CBC
A looming tariff battle between the United States and Canada could be a factor in a long-rumoured early Ontario election, some political experts say, suggesting the fight may give Premier Doug Ford a reason to call a snap vote.
Speculation has been swirling at Queen's Park for months that the Progressive Conservative government is preparing for an election a year ahead of the next fixed vote date in June 2026.
And that talk has only ramped up in recent weeks, as the legislature adjourns for the winter break and economic storm clouds gather on the horizon.
Earlier this week, a solemn Ford stood at a podium outside of his office at Queen's Park, issuing a dire warning about U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's threats to apply a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian and Mexican goods.
"We need to be ready," Ford said. "We need to be ready to fight. This fight is coming 100 per cent on January the 20th or January 21st."
Ford has been a vocal critic of Trump's plan and in recent days has advocated for an aggressive push back against the incoming president, including retaliatory tariffs and cutting off electricity exports to some states.
The brewing trade battle might just give Ford and his Tories the reason they're looking for to spark an early election, positioning the premier as the right leader to fight Trump, said Shakir Chambers, a conservative strategist and vice president with the Oyster Group.
"I think if the premier was looking for a rationale for an election, the Trump tariff threat gives him a rationale," he said.
"You need a fresh mandate with tariffs staring down the province."
Trump's proposed tariffs will have devastating effects on the province's economy, which could also be a motivating factor, said Charles Bird, principal at Earnscliffe Strategies.
"Ford has come out swinging … and this is likely going to play well with voters in the short term," said Bird, who is a Liberal strategist.
"If anything, the possible imposition of tariffs will increase the likelihood of the premier calling an early election," he said.
"As much as possible, Ford and the Conservatives will want to get out ahead of the potential economic fallout."
A focus on Trump and the trade battle also shifts the spotlight away from problems at home that Ford would rather not talk about, said Kim Wright, principal at Wright Strategies.
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