Don't count out CODA's charms — Predicting Oscar winners in a year like no other

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the 94th Academy Awards is that they're happening at all. In a world brimming with distractions and calamities, the Oscars have flown far under the radar, much to the concern of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and ABC executives hoping to reverse years of plummeting ratings. 

At various other warm-up events — the BAFTAS, the SAGS, the Critic's Choice Awards and more — the seemingly Ironman-like race for the Oscars has coalesced into a familiar narrative. The more obvious an actor's transformation, the greater their chances of winning. Artful and austere films may be championed, but don't count out those crowd-pleasing gems. 

If it's drama you're looking for, it's been behind the scenes, as Oscar producer Will Packer attempts to create a broadly appealing TV show honouring a collection of films with an audience a fraction of Spider-Man: No Way Home. 

While some competitions in some of the bigger categories have calcified over time, the potential for major upsets should help Oscar watchers stay tuned on Sunday. Now, lets dive into that Oscar pool.

One of my first thoughts watching The Power of the Dog was how specific and lived-in the film looked, especially for one shot in New Zealand. But the open skies and rustic charms of this Montana-set western will likely lose to Dune. One of the strength's of Denis Villeneuve's dream project is the vast sense of world building. From the brutalist architecture of the concrete fortresses to the old world touches suggesting the Atreus family's history, every object has a sense of place and history. 

The chants and familiar power chords of Hans Zimmer for Dune should easily drown out the artful twang of Johnny Greenwood's compositions for The Power of the Dog. 

When in doubt, remember that voters don't vote for the best, but the most. The more obvious the transformation, the better. In that respect, no one comes close to The Eyes of Tammy Faye, a film where the makeup is even part of the title.  

The smart money is on Dune for this category but I'm not sure the hallucinatory visions featuring Zendaya (and Dune's nearly three-hour running time) will convince voters. For a category that's been shunted out of the live broadcast, it's a tight race. Will voters fall for Don't Look Up's pop art collages? The Power of the Dog's Terrance Malik-like snapshots of nature? My vote? Tick, Tick … Boom — the post-modern musical within a musical where the film flips between flashbacks effortlessly. 

In a just world, the sophisticated dresses and suits filling out the film noir style of Nightmare Alley would be leading the pack. But remember: it's most, not best. So the punkish two-tone fashions of Cruella will take the golden trophy home. 

Another bumped category, another close race. Leading the pack are the open vistas and lingering closeups of The Power of the Dog. But don't count out West Side Story, with Janusz Kaminski giving the classic musical a vibrant movie makeover.

Do yourself a favour. Wake up early one morning. Put on a strong pot of coffee and settle in to watch Drive My Car. Three hours later, you'll understand why this master class in slow-release storytelling will win. 

Flee, an animated film about the plight of refugees and one man's escape from Afghanistan, becomes more timely every day. Nevertheless, Questlove's Summer of Soul concert film is overflowing with joy and moments of musical bliss, enough to charm voters aplenty. 

What can possibly compete with the film that unleashed We Don't Talk About Bruno? Encanto will salsa all the way to the podium, but if you haven't watched The Mitchells vs.The Machines, you're missing one of the most ridiculously original cartoons in years. 

No easy win here. Will voters go for the sentimental story of Belfast? The dogged determination of tennis dad King Richard? I would love to see fans of The Worst Person in the World, a wonderful film of romantic ruin from Norway, take home the prize. But I suspect the progressive voters of the Academy will make the climate change metaphor movie Don't Look Up a winner.