Does Uncertainty Harm the Economy? Business Leaders Are About to Find Out.
The New York Times
The lack of clarity about tariffs and other policies could hurt hiring and investing. But the strong U.S. economy should provide a buffer.
It is an axiom heard countless times in business school lecture halls and on corporate earnings calls: Uncertainty is bad for business.
The U.S. economy is about to test that proposition like never before.
The first weeks of the second Trump administration have been a dizzying whirlwind of economic policy moves: A spending freeze was declared, then rescinded. Federal programs, and even entire agencies, have been suspended or shut down. Tariffs have been threatened, announced, canceled, delayed or enacted — sometimes in a matter of days or even hours. Measures of economic policy uncertainty have soared to levels normally associated with recessions and global crises.
Business leaders — many of whom cheered President Trump’s election victory, expecting lower taxes and reduced regulation — have been left shaking their heads.
“Your guess is as good as mine what’s happening in Washington,” said Nicholas Pinchuk, chief executive of the automotive toolmaker Snap-on.
“So far what we’re seeing is a lot of costs and a lot of chaos,” Jim Farley, the chief executive of Ford Motor, told investors at a conference in New York this week.
