Different leading indicators suggest significant US economic slowdown: QNB

Doha: Qatar National Bank ( QNB) has projected a significant deceleration in the US economy, with GDP growth expected to drop to 1.4 percent in 2025,...

Doha: Qatar National Bank ( QNB) has projected a significant deceleration in the US economy, with GDP growth expected to drop to 1.4 percent in 2025, compared to 2.8 percent in 2024.

In its weekly commentary, QNB said, "Uncertainty has been high in recent months on the back of the new US administration, which has been rapidly enacting an aggressive "policy change agenda” with deep potential implications for both consumers and investors.

"Even in more ordinary periods, when governments adopt a more "business as usual” approach, it is notoriously difficult to read too much into the tea leaves of US policymaking. Currently, under a more "revisionist” Trump government, it is particularly challenging to conduct a more comprehensive analysis of economic policies and their impact on growth and inflation. Hence, we turn to markets to analyse what the evolution and direction of key asset classes is telling us about the US economy.

"Financial markets provide critical insights into the overall health of the US economy over the short- and medium-term, given that they are a reflection of real-world investment decisions by well-informed agents that are constantly trying to access or discount the future.

The bank pointed out that price action across asset classes seems to sustain a deteriorating macro view of slowing growth, despite any potential optimism with tax cuts or de-regulation.