Data | How the composition of judges affects the abortion rights in the U.S.

If Roe is overturned, more than 25 U.S. States would be affected, leading to judicial battles at State levels

According to a draft opinion leaked by news outlet Politico in February 2022, the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) privately voted to strike down the landmark Roe vs Wade (1973) judgment, wherein the court ruled that a pregnant woman can choose to have an abortion. Although the court generally maintains a balance of liberal and conservative justices, the 2018 appointment of Brett Kavanaugh by then-President Donald Trump, pushed the court to a conservative majority. If Roe is overturned, more than 25 U.S. States would be affected, leading to judicial battles at State levels. Data shows that even in countries with significant human development, socio-cultural and religious views carry significant weight, although most developed countries have permissive laws on abortion. Twelve countries with high human development only allow abortions if the woman’s life is at risk, while six countries prohibit it altogether.

The table shows the number of conservative and liberal justices in the Supreme Court of the United States between 1970 and 2020. Except for the 1970s, the SCOTUS had always maintained a balance in composition. In 2020, the SCOTUS was moved to a conservative supermajority, with six conservative and three liberal justices. Justices were billed as “conservative”/”liberal” based on Martin Quinn scores, a measure based on their judgments. Hover over the chart to find the exact figure

Notably, in 1973, when the Roe vs Wade judgement was passed, the jury had six conservative and three liberal judges

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The map shows possible changes in the abortion laws in different States in the United States if the Roe vs Wade judgment is diluted or overturned. In more than 25 of them, abortion rights will no longer be protected if it is overturned. (Blue) represents States where abortion will remain legal and where additional laws to expand abortion access could come up ; (purple) represents States where abortion will remain legal as the law will be protected; (pink) represents States where abortion will remain accessible but without legal protection; and (red) represents States where abortion may get prohibited

The chart shows the legal status of abortion across countries, based on five broad categories, against their Human Development Index (HDI)*. For instance, in Poland, though the human development index is high (0.87), abortion is only permitted on health or therapeutic grounds

*less than 0.55 - low human development; between 0.55 and 0.699 - medium human development; between 0.7 and 0.799 - high human development; above 0.8 - very high human development