Covid Third Wave May See Half The Cases Reported During 2nd Surge: Top Scientist

Manindra Agarwal, involved in the "Sutra Model" or the mathematical projection of trajectory of COVID-19, also said the model has three scenarios--optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic--for the prediction of the third wave.

The third wave of coronavirus could hit the peak between October-November if Covid appropriate behaviour is not followed, but may see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge, according to a scientist of a government panel tasked with modelling of COVID-19 cases. Here are plots for the three scenarios. Blue curve is actual data. Orange one is model prediction until May. Dotted curves are three scenarios plotted from June. pic.twitter.com/yDeLnp2rQf He, however, said the third wave could spread faster if any new virulent variant emerges. Manindra Agarwal, involved in the "Sutra Model" or the mathematical projection of trajectory of COVID-19, also said the model has three scenarios--optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic--for the prediction of the third wave. The Department of Science and Technology had last year formed the panel to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models.