Covid death toll in US projected to drop sharply by the end of July

Under the most optimistic scenarios considered, by the end of July new weekly national cases could drop below 50,000, hospitalizations to fewer than 1,000, and deaths to between 200 and 300.

Teams of experts are projecting the Covid-19 toll on the US will fall sharply by the end of July, according to research released by the government Wednesday. But they also warn that a “substantial increase” in hospitalizations and deaths is possible if unvaccinated people do not follow basic precautions such as wearing a mask and keeping their distance from others. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention paper included projections from six research groups. Their assignment was to predict the course of the US epidemic between now and September under different scenarios, depending on how the vaccination drive proceeds and how people behave.