Conspiracy theories have always surrounded strong jobs numbers. But what happens when the data falls short?

For months, many Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, have been quick to assert — without proof — that subsequent downward revisions to initial employment estimates published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were intentional in order to mask the true state of the economy at the time and help bolster Democrats’ case to voters.

For months, many Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, have been quick to assert — without proof — that subsequent downward revisions to initial employment estimates published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were intentional in order to mask the true state of the economy at the time and help bolster Democrats’ case to voters. If that were the case, why would the BLS produce an initial estimate that employers hired just 114,000 new workers in July, the second-lowest monthly gain since December 2020? That report, which also resulted in the unemployment rate shooting to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021, sparked concerns of a pending recession and helped contribute to a significant stock market selloff. (The July number was later revised higher to 144,000.) But they may ditch their argument Friday morning, when the October jobs report is set to be released — just days before Election Day. That’s because the report could show monthly job growth was the most sluggish since employers laid off a net 253,000 workers in December 2020 due in part to the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which have temporarily prevented some people from working. However, if it’s anything like Wednesday’s private sector hiring report published by payroll processor ADP, which showed employers added 233,000 jobs in October versus the 108,000 economists anticipated, it could reignite false accusations that the report is biased. For instance, after the BLS reported employers hired an estimated 254,000 new workers last month — similarly blowing past economists’ expectations — Republican Sen. Marco Rubio from Florida posted on X that it was “another fake jobs report.” His claim rested on the fact that the BLS had recently revised down several initial estimates of the number of new hires each month. “All the fake numbers in the world aren’t going to fool people dealing with the Biden-Harris economic disaster every day,” Rubio, who has been campaigning for Trump, added in the post. A Rubio representative did not comment.