Conservative surge combined with ballot confusion could crack a Liberal stronghold in Toronto byelection

Growing political discontent in a Liberal stronghold could lead to a Conservative breakthrough in an Ontario byelection that may put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership to the test. On Monday, voters in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul's will head to the polls to elect a new member of Parliament.

Growing political discontent in a Liberal stronghold could lead to a Conservative breakthrough in an Ontario byelection that may put Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership to the test. On Monday, voters in the riding of Toronto--St. Paul's will head to the polls to elect a new member of Parliament.

The federal seat was previously held by Carolyn Bennett before she resigned last year and has remained staunchly Liberal for more than three decades. But with the Grits falling to record-lows in popularity, some now see the local race as a referendum on the Prime Minister.

With no incumbent candidate, the pressure is on Liberal candidate Leslie Church to keep the riding red. But she will have to fight off a surging competitor, vote splitting and possible ballot confusion to eke out a win.

Last Wednesday, five days before the June 24 byelection, CTV News interviewed Church at her campaign office in midtown Toronto. Red lawn signs bearing her name were taped on the back wall, while two volunteers sat at a table facing the glass storefront. Four boxes of day-old discounted pink and chocolate donuts sat untouched on another table underneath a map of the riding.

Just before the interview started, a homeless man wandered into the campaign office seeking respite from the heat and was offered water by a staff member. The scene embodied the issues gripping Toronto--St. Paul’s.

"People are stretched right now. The number one concern I hear is around the cost of housing and rent. Sixty per cent of our households here are renters," said Church, when asked to explain what her doorstep pitch is to counter the desire for change in the constituency.

"Change doesn't mean throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Change doesn't mean abandoning your values, change means 'let's do things better.'"