Commentary: US war on Iran forces Japan and South Korea to confront geopolitical realities

The two US allies in East Asia face a choice: cooperate on defence or make peace with China, says political science professor Robert Kelly.

BUSAN, South Korea: The United States has embarked on yet another war in the Middle East. This has major ramifications for US allies in East Asia.

Washington has long sought to pivot to Asia and reduce its commitments in the Middle East. With its war on Iran potentially lasting a month or longer, it should now be clear that the pivot is not a priority for US President Donald Trump's administration. This enduring commitment to the Gulf overstretches America amid rising Chinese power in East Asia.

South Korea and Japan, America’s main allies in the region, now face a choice. They can cooperate to counterbalance Chinese military might and deter North Korean nuclear threats. Or they can consider appeasing China and North Korea to avoid a major conflict while their US partner is absent or heavily constrained.

South Korea and Japan have long been “frenemies” despite their mutual alignment with America, ideological commitment to liberal democracy, and shared geopolitical opponents – China, North Korea and Russia.

Decades of post-Cold War American dominance allowed these two should-be allies to indulge their antagonism at the expense of cooperation. Protracted US involvement in the Middle East would end this reprieve from geopolitical pressures.