Commentary: Iran war tests the Gulf’s grip on aviation hub status

The war in Iran has called into question the long-term economic sustainability of the Gulf countries and vulnerabilities of Middle Eastern carriers, says Endau Analytics’ Shukor Yusof.

SINGAPORE: If the Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint, then the airspace over Iran and much of the Middle East has become a flashpoint since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Hundreds of missiles and drones have been fired into the skies, prompting airspace closures and flight cancellations on a scale not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. With the war into its second week, what are the implications for the global aviation industry and how will it reshape future air travel?

Let’s start with some numbers. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – contribute a sizeable chunk of airline traffic, especially in international and transit segments.

Numbers from the International Air Transport Association show the region’s airports, which serve as a gateway between Europe, Asia and Africa, accounting for about 15 per cent of global international transit traffic.

Before the outbreak of the war, there were at least 2,200 aircraft movements a day at the Dubai International Airport, one of the Gulf’s major aviation hubs. Over at the Hamad International Airport in Doha, at least 900 aircraft movements were recorded daily.