CNN polls across six battlegrounds find Georgia and Pennsylvania are key toss-ups

The 2024 presidential campaign’s home stretch kicks off with a mixed outlook across six key battlegrounds, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in each state. Vice President Kamala Harris holds an advantage over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump has the edge in Arizona. The two split likely voters almost evenly in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the state with the largest electoral vote prize that’s widely seen as up for grabs.

The 2024 presidential campaign’s home stretch kicks off with a mixed outlook across six key battlegrounds, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in each state. Vice President Kamala Harris holds an advantage over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump has the edge in Arizona. The two split likely voters almost evenly in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the state with the largest electoral vote prize that’s widely seen as up for grabs. Across each of them, an average of 15% of likely voters say they have not yet firmly decided their choice, suggesting a sizable share of voters could shift their views on the race as attention to the campaign rises and campaign activity, especially in these states, hits a fever pitch in the final nine weeks before Election Day. Likely voters in Wisconsin break 50% for Harris to 44% for Trump, and in Michigan, it’s 48% Harris to 43% Trump. In Arizona, Trump lands at 49% to Harris’ 44%. In Georgia and Nevada, 48% back Harris to 47% for Trump, and in Pennsylvania, the candidates are tied at 47%. The polls, conducted after the Democratic National Convention in August, reflect results among likely voters determined through a combination of past vote behavior and current intention to vote. The findings suggest an Electoral College landscape where Pennsylvania and Georgia are central to each candidate’s path to the White House. President Joe Biden carried all six of these states in 2020, winning Georgia by just under 12,000 votes and Arizona by a little over 10,000 votes. Were Harris to hold Biden’s 2020 wins outside of these six states and carry Wisconsin and Michigan, a win in Pennsylvania plus a single electoral vote from anywhere else would give her the presidency. Should Trump hold North Carolina – a state he carried in 2020 and that is widely considered a battleground in this year’s contest – wins in Georgia and Pennsylvania would put him over the top regardless of what happens in Wisconsin, Michigan or Nevada. In that scenario, even Arizona, where he currently holds a narrow lead, would not be necessary for Trump to win another term as president. Harris’ emergence as the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, replacing Biden atop the party’s ticket this summer, has altered some dynamics in the race but left others intact. Economic issues, which posed a notable weak point for Biden, remain the topic most often chosen by voters when asked what matters to their choice for president; an average of 39% of likely voters across states choose the economy as their top issue, with protecting democracy next at an average of 25%. But Harris now trails Trump on trust to handle the economy by relatively smaller margins than Biden did; across the current polls, Trump is more trusted than Harris on the economy by 8 points on average. (In New York Times/Siena College polls of the same six states this spring, the same calculation yielded a 20-point Trump advantage over Biden.) Trump maintains a broad advantage as more trusted to handle immigration, while Harris has built on Biden’s lead as more trusted to handle abortion and reproductive rights, with women across these six states preferring her by an average of 27 percentage points on the issue.