China’s exports jump 12.4% in March as bigger U.S. tariff hikes loom

China's rare earth exports drop 11% in Q1 as Beijing tightens controls on vital materials for high-tech products.

China's exports jumped 12.4% in March from a year earlier in a last-minute flurry of activity as companies rushed to beat increases in U.S. tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and analysts forecast sharp setbacks ahead.

Imports fell 4.3% to $211.3 billion in March, the customs administration reported, far exceeded by exports worth $313.9 billion, leaving a trade surplus of $102.6 billion.

“But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters,” Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said in a report. “We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.”

China's trade surplus surged to a record $992.2 billion in 2024 and its exports climbed 5.4%, helping to make up for sluggish growth at home as the country slowly recovers from a crisis in its property market and lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

After taking office, Mr. Trump first ordered a 10% increase in tariffs on imports from China. He later raised that to 20%. Now, China is facing 145% tariffs on most of its exports to the United States, based on the most recent revisions in Trump’s trade policies. China has responded with 125% tariffs on U.S. products and other measures meant to pinch the U.S. where it hurts most, such as controls on exports of critical minerals needed in high-tech manufacturing, such as electric vehicle production.

China’s trade surplus with the United States was $27.6 billion in March as its exports rose 4.5%. It logged a surplus of $76.6 billion with the U.S. in January-March even though exports were up only 2.3% the first two months of the year.

“Savvy U.S. importers likely saw tariff hikes coming in April onward and frontloaded imports,” ING Economics said in a report, but that trend is likely to fall off as importers use up their inventories while they watch for the latest twists and turns in unpredictable U.S. trade policy.