CBS News Analysis: Early ballot returns point to healthy turnout in California recall

Over 6 million voters have already cast ballots in California's gubernatorial recall election.

Turnout so far looks healthy for an off-year special election. The number of returned ballots is at 80% of the number returned at an equivalent point last year, about one week out from Election Day. Early voting has slowed down since a week ago, when it was more or less keeping pace with the general election. A big question going forward is whether the high rate of early voting will sustain or slow down further in the coming days. On one hand, the large early returns are welcome news for the Newsom campaign, as higher turnout may help him survive. Since California's registered voters are so Democratic — D+22 by party registration — the closer the actual recall electorate is to the broader pool of registered voters, the more Democratic we would expect the election results to be. In August, registered voters opposed the recall by eight points — double the margin among likely voters.