Carney's immigration strategy comes during a shift in the economy — and public opinion on newcomers

Canadians will learn how the federal government is revising its immigration strategy in Tuesday's budget, as public support for immigration is changing and after Ottawa already lowered its targets last fall.

“We are getting immigration under control,” Prime Minister Mark Carney told a room of students at the University of Ottawa in October.

“To match immigration levels with our needs and our capacity, the budget will include Canada’s new immigration plan to do better — for newcomers, for everyone."

The Trudeau government had cut immigration levels after it rapidly increased during the post-pandemic labour shortage.

In 2024, the government announced the target for permanent residents this year would be cut from 500,000 to 395,000, with further reductions in subsequent years. The government also said at the time it was lowering the cap on international student permits by 10 per cent.

This came as a majority of Canadians said were too many immigrants coming to Canada for the first time since Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada started polling in 1996.

Usha George, a professor at Toronto Metropolitan University's faculty of community services who focuses on newcomer settlement and integration, said the immigration increase in the years following the pandemic had an impact on public services.

“Our housing, our transport, our health care could not meet the demands of this very large number of people who have come in,” she said.

Canada's unemployment rate has been rising this year, sitting at 7.1 per cent as of September. But the picture is worse for new arrivals.

The unemployment rate for recent immigrants was 11.1 per cent last year, about double the rate for those born in Canada.

And according to Statistics Canada, immigrants are more likely to be working in a field "unrelated to their education or training than their counterparts who were born in Canada."

The government lowered standards for the qualifications and skills economic immigrants were required to meet, said Phil Triadafilopoulos, an associate professor of political science at the University of Toronto.

“I think where we really went off the rails, especially after COVID, is using the economic immigration system to admit people who previously, and now again, would have no hope of gaining entry,” said Triadafilopoulos.

At the same time, there is demand in the business community for more high-skilled labour in emerging industries.