Carney heads to Paris as allies discuss security guarantees for Ukraine

The coalition of countries supporting Ukraine, including Canada, face a pivotal moment as they convene in Paris this week to map out a credible pathway towards a possible ceasefire and reconstruction.

Prime Minister Mark Carney will attend the gathering of more than 30 leaders, where the key issue of postwar security guarantees will be discussed. Those bilateral assurances are intended to deter Russia from taking a breather and then resuming its push to take over all of its Eastern European neighbours in a few years' time. 

The leaders will meet on Tuesday at the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron. In the run-up, however, there will be a meeting of defence chiefs from coalition countries on Monday.

That comes on the heels of a meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had with 18 coalition national security and defence advisers in Kyiv over the weekend.

Canada’s former NATO ambassador and current defence policy adviser to the prime minister, David Angell, took part in the discussions where the issue of collective security guarantees and how they play into the overall peace effort led by the U.S. and President Donald Trump was among the top items on the agenda.

Zelenskyy told reporters afterward that he expects security guarantees to be finalized at the meeting in Paris.

"During these meetings, there will also be meetings with President Trump's team," the Ukrainian president said. "These meetings will also take place in Paris. They will last a day, or perhaps two — we will see how things develop."

Zelenskyy has repeatedly underlined the importance of making the security guarantees robust and credible in the face of Russia's ongoing invasion.

"Russia has not shown a genuine willingness to pursue peace,” he said in a statement. “Instead, it continues its aggressive war, violence, and destabilization, using negotiations as a tactic to buy time. It employs provocations and manipulations to derail progress in the peace process." 

Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor and national security expert at the University of New Haven in Connecticut, said it's remarkable how Ukraine has turned European reluctance and hesitation into commitments of military support.

"I think the 'coalition of the willing' is the greatest success of Ukrainian foreign policy since the start of the war," said Schmidt, referring to the 35-nation group of Ukraine-friendly countries that includes Canada.

"It's really going to offer Zelenskyy the possibility of some kind of security guarantee that can be quite meaningful in the absence of NATO membership."

The fact that the Ukrainian government appears to have convinced European leaders that Russia is "an immediate threat" to them "is quite a success because the truth is we forget that back in 2022 and 2023, Europe was resisting this characterization of the war," Schmidt said.

Concrete security guarantees from Europe and Canada would allow Ukraine to forego its long-sought plan to join NATO.