Canadians are set to vote in election dominated by Trump’s trade war and bluster

Canadian election in turmoil as Trump threatens sovereignty, economy, and even annexation, shaping a pivotal referendum on leadership.

Canadians will decide Monday (April 28, 2025) whether to extend the Liberal Party's decade in power or hand control to the Conservatives. They'll pick either Prime Minister Mark Carney or opposition leader Pierre Poilievre to lead the way forward, but the election is also a referendum of sorts on someone who isn't even Canadian: Donald Trump.

Until the American President won a second term and began threatening Canada's economy and sovereignty, even suggesting the country should become the 51st state, the Liberals looked headed for defeat.

Canadians go the polls as the country grapples with the aftermath of a fatal car ramming attack on Saturday (April 26, 2025 in Vancouver. The tragedy on the eve of the election prompted the suspension of campaigning for several hours. Police ruled out terrorism and said the suspect is a local man with a history of mental health issues.

Mr. Trump's truculence has infuriated many Canadians, leading many to cancel U.S. vacations, refuse to buy American goods and possibly even vote early — a record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day. Mr. Trump also put Mr. Poilievre and the Conservative Party on the back foot after they appeared headed for an easy victory only months ago.

“The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” Mr. Carney said recently, laying out what he saw as the stakes for the election. “Those aren't just words. That's what's at risk.”

Mr. Poilievre, a populist firebrand who campaigned with Trump-like bravado, had hoped to make the election a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity declined toward the end of his decade in power as food and housing prices rose and immigration surged. But then Mr. Trump became the dominant issue, and Mr. Poilievre's similarities to the bombastic president could cost him.

“He appeals to the same sense of grievance,” Canadian historian Robert Bothwell said of the Conservative leader. “It’s like Trump standing there saying ’I am your retribution.’”