Canadian should prepare for spring election, even if Trudeau stays on: experts

Canada appears to be barrelling toward a spring election now that the NDP is vowing to vote down the government early next year — whether Trudeau stays on or not.

Canada appears to be barrelling toward a spring election now that the NDP is vowing to vote down the government early next year — whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stays on or not.

Political watchers are abuzz over the possible scenarios that could play out in the coming year following last week’s drama that rocked Trudeau’s government, and a springtime national campaign is the one that’s solidifying the fastest.

The exact timing is very much up in the air, but the best bet is for the government to fall by late March, and then a general election day would fall in April or May, said Yaroslav Baran, co-founder of the Pendulum Group and former chief of staff to Conservative house leader Jay Hill.

“The greatest likelihood would be that the government would fall at some point between late February and late March,” he said, making April or May the “most likely scenario” for the election day.

If the government falls on a non-confidence vote, the prime minister would then be obliged to go to Gov. Gen. Mary Simon to inform her and advise her on election timing. The window for a campaign is a minimum of 36 days and a maximum of 50 days, according to Elections Canada.

The events in Ottawa of the past week appear to have moved up the political calendar by somewhere around five months, since the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland dealt a stunning blow to Trudeau’s grip on the party and has renewed the internal push for him to step down as leader.

Trudeau is said to now be reflecting on his future. The prime minister’s office did not respond Monday when asked about his plans for the holidays.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has vowed he will help defeat the governing Liberals in a confidence vote when the House returns. The Conservatives, locked firmly ahead in the polls, have been demanding an election all fall, while the Bloc has also recently called for an election early in the new year.