Canadian dollar no longer oiled up by crude: CIBC
BNN Bloomberg
The Canadian dollar, while historically considered a petrocurrency, has languished in the face of soaring crude prices and is raising questions on whether the link between the loonie and oil still exists.
The Canadian dollar, while historically considered a petrocurrency, has languished in the face of soaring crude prices and is raising questions on whether the link between the loonie and oil still exists.
“The loonie sits close to where it stood in early 2021, when [West Texas Intermediate] prices were running in the low US$50 per barrel range,” Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a note to clients Tuesday.
“The most recent spike on the outbreak of war created a flight to safety bid for U.S. dollars at the expense of other currencies, but the loonie hadn’t benefited from oil’s gains prior to the threat of war showing up on markets’ radar screens.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has climbed 71 per cent to more than US$120 per barrel since the start of the year, while the loonie appears stuck trading within a three-cent range.
Shenfeld said evidence suggests that the oil-loonie link has been severed which may have important implications for Canada’s energy producers.
