Canada’s oil demand will fall by 2030, IEA report forecasts
Global News
The International Energy Agency projects that under existing climate policies oil production in Canada will grow by about 700,000 barrels a day by 2030 before it starts to recede.
Environment groups in Canada say governments and the oil and gas industry can no longer pretend there is an economic case for expanding oil production after the latest international energy forecast suggests demand for Canada’s oil will fall before the end of this decade.
But the International Energy Agency also said there are new opportunities for oil and gas companies to turn their “skills, competencies and resources” into a competitive advantage for clean energy technology. For its part, the Canadian oil industry argues it is more committed to being cleaner and greener than most other producers and should be used as an investment to help fund clean technology in other areas.
The International Energy Agency projected in a report this week that under existing climate policies oil production in Canada will grow by about 700,000 barrels a day by 2030 before it starts to recede.
If Canada implements the new policies the Liberals have promised – including mandating more electric car sales and capping emissions from oil and gas production – available Canadian oil will fall by 100,000 barrels a day by 2030.
And in a net zero policy push – where any greenhouse gases still emitted are captured by 2050 – oil supply will fall even faster.
Globally, the IEA predicts that with existing policies, oil demand will peak around 2030. With policies to meet more stringent targets by 2030, demand will peak by 2025. Under net zero, demand peaks even earlier and will be cut by one-fifth in fewer than 10 years, and by more than 75 per cent by mid-century.
Increasingly, Canada’s higher cost, more emissions-intensive oil will be pushed out of the market by cheaper oil in the Middle East and Russia, the report suggests.
“The IEA report does a good job of saying, ‘Look, particularly countries like Canada where it’s high cost, high carbon, we’re going to get squeezed,”’ said Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist at Greenpeace Canada.