Canada's energy regulator criticized for not modelling a net-zero future

The federal agency tasked with projecting Canada's supply and demand of energy for the next few decades is drawing criticism for what's missing in its latest annual report: A roadmap for the sector to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

That's Canada's legislated climate goal, in order for the country to do its part in limiting global warming to 1.5 C and avoid the catastrophic impacts of runaway climate change. 

The latest energy future report from the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) sees the country's oil production continuing to rise until 2032, and natural gas until 2040 — seemingly inconsistent with reaching Canada's emissions targets.

To arrive at these projections, the CER assumed that climate action and policy-making in Canada and abroad will continue to grow at the same pace it has in recent history.

But experts say there's no time to waste, and climate commitments will need to become increasingly ambitious.

"We have seen horrifying floods in B.C., wildfires throughout the summer, an extremely difficult season of drought for Canadian farmers — we are already experiencing the impacts of climate change," said Vanessa Corkal, policy advisor at International Institute for Sustainable Development, a think-tank that studies climate policy in Canada.

"So this report does not provide the information that helps us deal with and prevent those types of climate disasters."

The CER's energy future report is used by governments to plan energy projects and policies for the future, and by businesses to make investment decisions. Its projections are vital in ensuring Canadian businesses are investing in the right things as the world transitions to cleaner sources of energy, said Corkal.

"Canada needs to catch up to that analysis if we're going to have a competitive Canadian economy that thrives in a net-zero economy and one that avoids climate disaster," she said. 

"We need to have data that's granular and detailed enough at the domestic level to help Canadian businesses and investors plan."

Responding to the report in a tweet last week, Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said: "Going forward, I have asked the CER to look into how they could provide even more data in line with Canada achieving net-zero emissions by 2050." 

The CER's chief economist Darren Christie said the agency is already in the process of planning for the next iteration of the report, and "central to the conversation" is what their net-zero analysis is going to look like.

"What we have highlighted … is that with the assumptions of increasing policy action in the coming years, where the increase is at a pace like what we've seen in recent years, we see a lot of change," Christie said. 

"But it's not enough change, in all likelihood, to get us to net zero in 2050."