Canada's best- and worst-case scenarios for Friday's FIFA World Cup draw

The Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., buzzed with activity and speculation on Thursday in advance of Friday’s all-important draw for the 2026 men’s World Cup. 

Next summer’s expanded tournament, to be played in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico, will feature 48 teams, and their wildly different rankings, as well as the state of global politics, has made the assembly of the 12 opening groups feel like a delicate proposition.

Countries will be drawn from four pots, seeded by relative strength. As a co-host, Canada has a place in Pot 1 despite its being ranked 27th in the world, meaning it won’t face the U.S. or Mexico, or top powers like Argentina, France, England, or Spain in the group stage.

The Canadian men, who failed to earn a point in their previous two World Cup appearances in 1986 and 2022, will still be pressed to advance to the knockout rounds. In a trial draw under the Kennedy Center’s bright lights on Thursday, Canada pulled South Korea from Pot 2, Paraguay from Pot 3, and the winner of a March playoff between Ukraine, Poland, Sweden, and Albania from Pot 4.

That would be a benign group given the possibilities. Each pot has its dangers and opportunities, and Canada’s fate will be significantly shaped by Friday’s drawing of actual lots. 

Every team in Pot 2 is seeded higher than Canada. The lowest seed is Australia, at 26th, which beat Canada 1-0 in a scrappy October friendly in Montreal. The top seed is Croatia, the 10th-best team in the world.

Croatia would be the worst-possible pick for Canada, not only because of their strength. In Qatar in 2022, the eventual semifinalists thumped Canada 4-1, after then-coach John Herdman infamously suggested his side “f--- Croatia.” The Croatians disagreed. A second meeting would have its intrigue, but there are less fraught options, on and off the pitch.

Iran isn’t one of them. A Thursday report suggested that Amir Ghalenoei, Iran’s coach, will attend the draw despite his federation’s promise to boycott over visa issues. (Iran’s citizens are subject to a U.S. travel ban.) FIFA might like to see the 20th-ranked side in Canada’s or Mexico’s groups, freeing at least one Iranian game from American influence, but the usual fan migrations will still prove complicated.

Despite Australia’s recent win over Canada, a rematch would suit both countries. Australia's lone goal was unfortunate — or fortunate, from the Australian perspective — and each side would like its chances against the other.

While the specifics of each group-stage game won’t be confirmed until Saturday, Canada’s Pot 2 matchup will almost certainly be its last, slated for B.C. Place on June 24. A pan-Pacific summit would no doubt make for a buoyant, beer-soaked day in Vancouver.

Because UEFA will have 16 teams at the World Cup, each group will have at least one side from Europe and possibly two. Every team in Pot 3, at least according to FIFA’s rankings, is weaker than Canada, and there’s an obvious argument to be made that it would be better to face a European team from Pot 3 than Pot 2.

Norway is the counterargument. Lifted to great heights by the goalscoring heroics of Erling Haaland, the top Pot 3 seed, at 29th, is a potential tournament dark horse. The Norwegians went undefeated in qualifying, relegating even Italy to the UEFA playoffs, and finished with the best goal difference of any team on the continent.

A match between Canada and Norway — two relentless attacking sides — would make for tremendous entertainment, and hosting Haaland, one of the game’s titans, will only enhance the thrill.

But the dream is to advance out of the group, and Canada would be better off drawing 61st-ranked South Africa, the lowest seed among the Pot 3 teams.