Canada has the minerals needed for EVs. How much bargaining power does that really give us?

There's this emerging notion of Canada as an impending superpower in mining the critical minerals that will run defining technologies of this century, from electric vehicles to smartphones and solar panels.

It was a recurring theme of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's recent Washington visit.

It's sometimes raised as a potential source of geopolitical power for Canada, say, against the United States in a trade spat. 

We've even heard one attention-grabbing suggestion from union leader Jerry Dias: that Canada should cut the U.S. off from these minerals if it won't cave in a dispute over electric vehicles.

This conjures improbable images of Canada wielding some sort of modern-day version of Saudi Arabia's notorious oil sword of the 1970s.

Okay, now it's time for a reality check.

Basic statistics offer something of a cold shower: Canada's position is not remotely comparable to the Arab oil powerhouses of 1973. 

In fact, global surveys suggest Canada holds a tiny percentage of mineable worldwide reserves of critical minerals and is not only way behind world-dominating China but lots of other countries too.

"We've been asleep for years and years and years and have chosen not to act," said Eric Miller, a Canadian-born trade consultant based in Washington, D.C.

"And the Chinese have had a deliberate strategy for 25 years to consolidate ownership in all critical minerals."

So now that the rest of planet Earth has woken up to the economic importance of several dozen industrial minerals like cobalt and lithium, here's the outlook. 

The International Energy Agency predicts demand for critical minerals will double by 2040, or even quadruple if we get serious about meeting our Paris climate commitments.

Electric vehicle purchases are expected to grow tenfold this decade, stoking an insatiable appetite for lithium batteries and the cobalt that prevents them from melting.

The U.S. Geological Survey runs a detailed inventory each year and the 2021 version offers sobering context about our position.