Canada faces recession risk over next 6 months, most financial leaders say
Global News
Business and financial leaders say trade tensions are the most important factor the Canadian economy faces and a recession is still possible.
Canada is still at risk of entering a recession within the next six months, according to sentiments in a survey by the Bank of Canada of business and financial leaders across the country.
The Bank of Canada released its third-quarter Market Participants Survey Monday, which gauges the economic outlook from respondents every three months.
Three out of four respondents said there’s a 43 per cent chance that Canada would enter a recession within the next six months, while the bottom quarter of respondents said there was a 30 per cent risk.
Participants of the survey included representatives from banks, dealers, pension funds, insurers and asset-management and research firms.
The survey comes shortly after the central bank cut interest rates in late October, but was conducted near the end of September 2025, and as trade tensions fuelled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to weaken the Canadian economy and the job market.
A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the economy, measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Respondents painted a grim outlook for GDP in the Bank of Canada’s survey.
Nearly 90 per cent said Canada’s economy, measured by GDP, is churning along below its true potential, with just over 10 per cent saying GDP is right around where it should be.
The agency says more than 22,000 people have been removed from the country in the last 12 months, and nearly 30,000 removals were "in progress" as of Oct. 31.
A problem with the signalling system caused a service interruption this morning on Montreal's light-rail network.
An Ontario lawyer accused by American authorities of advising a Canadian Olympian-turned-alleged-cocaine kingpin has had his licence to practice law suspended.
The FIFA draw ceremony will mark the first time Prime Minister Mark Carney, U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will be in the same room.
A new report finds anglophones face higher unemployment and lower wages in Quebec; gaps that researchers say carry major economic consequences.
Critics are questioning the solidity of Saab's pitch to deliver 10,000 jobs in Canada if it decides to set up shop here to assemble Gripen fighter jets.
The girl’s disappearance underscores long-standing concerns about the ease with which a parent can take a child to another country without the other parent’s knowledge or consent.
Asbestos cleanup, tight work windows and other TTC delays have slowed the build out of 5G cellular service in Toronto's subway system.
Alberta's UCP government is changing the rules to make it easier for citizens to force a referendum on issues such as the prospect of the province leaving Confederation.
An at-home DNA test given as a birthday gift solved an 80-year family mystery by revealing that a man in Quebec and a man in the Netherlands were long-lost brothers.
Lina Vargas was on the board for almost two years and told Global News that accountability and transparency are fundamental rights for all community members.
Industry Minister Melanie Joly told the House of Commons committee on international trade the move breaches federal contracts tied to manufacturing in Brampton and Windsor, Ont.
A targeted home invasion and kidnapping led to a gunpoint standoff with police and an overnight chase across Toronto. Two suspects remain at large, investigators say.