Can South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa survive the ANC’s election setback?

The governing party must form a coalition government but some opposition parties want the president out of the picture.

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) has lost its majority in the country’s election this week for the first time since the end of apartheid, in a major setback for the party that led the country’s liberation from white minority rule.

The ANC, which has led the country since 1994, has started closed-door negotiations with other parties to try and stitch together a governing coalition — something it had never had to do until now. Yet analysts say that the party’s losses and the pressures it will confront from potential alliance partners have also cast a cloud over the future of the man the ANC had hoped would lead it into another term in office: President Cyril Ramaphosa.

With nearly all votes counted, the ANC has won about 40 percent of the mandate, followed by the principal opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, with 21 percent. In third place is the big success story of the election: Former President Jacob Zuma’s uMKhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which has ravaged the ANC’s core voting base, looks poised to form the government in KwaZulu Natal province, and could prove critical in determining whether the ANC forms the next government under Ramaphosa. The MK party has won almost 15 percent of the national vote, and 45 percent of the vote in KwaZulu Natal, Zuma’s home province.

Already, the MK, whose senior leadership — including Zuma himself — consists of many politicians with ANC roots, has ruled out a deal with the governing party unless it sacks Ramaphosa first. After leading the ANC to its worst-ever electoral performance, Ramaphosa will face intense pressure to stand aside, said analysts.