Can left-centrist parties unite to block far-right win in French elections?

Left and centre blocs are scrambling to prevent an absolute win for National Rally via strategic alliance before the second round of voting.

France is firmly in uncharted territory after President Emmanuel Macron’s snap elections gamble backfired and saw the opposition far-right National Rally (RN) party surge to a dramatic win in Sunday’s parliamentary first-round polls, analysts say.

Led by Marine Le Pen and her young protege, Jordan Bardella, the RN looks set to take the biggest chunk of the 577-seat lower house having come away from the first round of voting with 33 percent of the vote, nearly double the 18.9 percent share it won in the last parliamentary elections in 2022.

If its position in the polls does not shift in the crucial, second round of voting on July 7, this election could deliver the country’s first far-right prime minister since World War II.

Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition, meanwhile, trailed at a distant 20.3 percent, a devastating blow for the ruling alliance. The results are worse than the coalition’s 26 percent in the 2022 elections.

The RN’s success is likely to see it gain a majority of seats in the parliament on Sunday, but analysts say it could fall short of the absolute majority it needs, with polls projecting it will take some 230 seats, not quite the 289 magic number. Macron’s alliance is predicted to clinch only about 70-100 seats, while the left coalition, New Popular Front (NFP) could take about 165 seats.