Can India Vaccinate Fast Enough To Avoid A Third Wave? Experts Say...

Despite halting all exports in April and benefiting from a huge vaccine producing industry, India has covered only 4% of its vast population, putting it far behind most of the West and China, which is deploying about 20 million doses a day.

Officials in New Delhi rejoiced earlier this week when India hit a single-day record by administering more than 8 million Covid-19 vaccinations. But even this unprecedented pace may not be fast enough for a country just emerging from a devastating second wave to head off a third one, experts say. They also question whether this week's push averaging about 4.6 million doses a day, up from about 3 million for most of the past month, can be sustained. Despite halting all exports in April and benefiting from a huge vaccine producing industry, India has covered only 4% of its vast population, putting it far behind most of the West and China, which is deploying about 20 million doses a day. At this rate, some scientists say a third wave could arrive within months, driving fears the country may see a repeat of the recent nightmare of oxygen shortages and overwhelmed hospitals. "I don't think the recent spurt can be maintained, given what we know of the supply situation," said Gautam Menon, a professor of physics and biology at Ashoka University, who also works on modeling outbreaks. "The single-day spike seems to have been the result of a concerted effort by some states, who may have stockpiled doses for this purpose. We would need to get to about 10 million doses per day to ensure that a future wave is less potent."