Can Canada’s labour force rebound after baby boomers retire?
Global News
The study shows the labour force participation rate will likely continue to decline until 2030, when the last baby boomer cohort retires, then is likely to stabilize.
A new study by Statistics Canada is trying to answer the looming question of how the country will be impacted once the remaining baby boomer generation retires — and it points to immigration as a factor that could both help and challenge.
The study, released Tuesday, looked at how different immigration levels and labour force participation rates would impact both the size and the composition of the force through to 2041.
It comes just ahead of the labour market report set to be released this week.
According to the study, labour force participation has declined since the early 2000s and it’s expected this will continue until 2030 when the last group of baby boomers reach age 65.
Jean-Dominique Morency, a co-author of the study and demographer at Statistics Canada, told Global News this is because after that point it will be smaller cohorts such as gen X retiring, which will have less of an impact than the large baby boomer generation.
“The impact on the labour force participation rate will be small or there will be no impact on this rate,” he said in an interview about retirements after roughly 2030.
The study notes that come 2030, if Canadian immigration remains at the set 500,000 permanent immigrants per year target set by the federal government, the labour force participation rate will stabilize and reach approximately 64.6 per cent by 2021.
That would amount to a growth from 21.7 million in 2023 to 26.8 million in 2041 — by comparison, the labour force increased from 16.1 million in 2001 to 20.5 million in 2021.
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