BJP hopes for repeat of 2017 in PM Modi’s upcoming campaign stop in Varanasi

Party faces problems within and outside, hopes Modi’s three-day sojourn in his constituency will resolve issues

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's planned three-day sojourn in his parliamentary constituency of Varanasi between March 2 and 5, coinciding with the sixth and seventh phase of polls in Uttar Pradesh, is being seen by the BJP as a trip that could make a critical difference to the party's fortunes in the 111 seats of Eastern Uttar Pradesh in the fray.

Eastern Uttar Pradesh is considered crucial for any party that seeks power in the State, many saying whoever holds the area wins the state. It is also the home of the social engineering that the BJP effected in 2017, with alliances with Apna Dal and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj (SBSP) party, consolidating the non-Yadav OBC vote (nearly 35% of the votes in the State) to sweep the area. The narrative was that the Samajwadi Party had seen the overwhelming dominance of the Yadav community at the cost of the other OBCs, and that the BJP was willing to share power and welfare goodies with these groups. That consolidation is now under threat of being splintered by the Samajwadi Party trying to regroup as a larger OBC-Muslim umbrella party, with an alliance with former BJP ally, the SBSP, and poaching several OBC leaders, including three Ministers from the BJP.

Party and free grain

In Handia constituency, en route from Varanasi towards Prayagraj, Anara Devi who belongs to the Bind community finds no reason to change her vote, which she gave to sitting MLA Hakim Lal Bind who had won on a Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ticket and is now, having shifted parties to the SP, the candidate from that party. “Yes we got free grains, one kilogram of salt, chana and cooking oil, but I don’t know anything about subsidy [for gas under Ujjwala Yojana]. He [Hakim Lal Bind] is from our area,” she said.

The BJP has fielded Prashant Kumar Rahul who belongs to the Nishad (another non-Yadav OBC community) from the area, and draws support from other communities, like that of Rakesh Vishwakarma who counts free grains and a house under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana as factors affecting his choice. Even on the question of stray cattle and Nilgai infestation hurting standing crops in the area, he has a ready answer : “ Hamare paas na zameen hai na pashu,yeh hamari samasya nahin hai [I don’t own land or cattle, it is not a problem for me].”

The seat has a sizeable population of Binds, Yadavs and Muslims, with the SP poised to do well. But Mr Bind had won by a margin of a little over 8000 votes the last time around, defeating Apna Dal (BJP ally) Pramila Devi. The deciding vote will be of the Dalit community in the area numbering around 70,000 in a seat with around 4,00,000 voters. It is in such seats that Prime Minister Modi's appeal across categories and communities, not just Hindutva, and more importantly on the free grain and welfare programmes, is being counted on by the BJP.

The SP's poaching of 10 BJP leaders, including three Ministers belonging to the non-Yadav OBC sections, also created a piquant problem for the BJP. While the party has been combating the electoral challenges of these defections — for example, Swamy Prasad Maurya was attempted to be countered by poaching former Union Minister R.P.N. Singh from the Congress, forcing Mr. Maurya to change his seat from Padrauna to Fazil Nagar — it spooked the BJP enough not to do radical changes to its candidate list. Many MLAs with significant anti-incumbency against them were retained.