Biden’s chances could hinge on turning out Black voters, but first the campaign has to reach them

On a recent chilly Sunday, a retired Milwaukee police sergeant leaned into the window of a grey Mazda in a strip mall parking lot where some of the post-church crowd was coming for lunch, chatting up the driver for almost 10 minutes.

On a recent chilly Sunday, a retired Milwaukee police sergeant leaned into the window of a gray Mazda in a strip mall parking lot where some of the post-church crowd was coming for lunch, chatting up the driver for almost 10 minutes. The 2024 election could hinge on the efforts of people like Kimberlee Foster — or at least President Joe Biden’s campaign hopes so. In the run-up to Tuesday’s Wisconsin primaries and local elections, Foster is part of a live “relational organizing” pilot program Biden’s campaign has been running here as it tries to tackle the drop-off in Black turnout over the last decade, along with the cultural and technological changes that have made it harder than ever to reach those who have checked out. “When you knock on the door, some people want to take the leaflet and close the door so they can get back to watching football,” Foster said about going from house to house. “When you come at them this way, they’re more likely to say, ‘I hadn’t thought about voting, but now I see why it’s important to you.’ You’re praying that feedback leads them to a polling place.” It’s no accident this program started in Wisconsin: Almost any path to victory for Biden or former President Donald Trump will run through this state, which Biden won by fewer than 21,000 votes in 2020 and Trump won by fewer than 23,000 votes in 2016 — with the Black vote significantly lower than expected both times. North Milwaukee is home to the most concentrated Black population in the state, but Black engagement here has been so low that Democratic organizers are finding that half the people they’ve been reaching weren’t in their voter files, which means they never even heard from campaign staff trying to rally votes in 2020 or before. It’s not just Wisconsin, though. CNN’s conversations with two dozen top Biden campaign aides, elected officials across the country and voters on the ground in several key states detail a frantic fight that is much bigger than what’s going on in north Milwaukee. Because the president’s hopes in almost every battleground state depend on cities like Detroit, Philadelphia, Charlotte and Atlanta, his chances of winning may come down to whether he can reverse the trend among Black voters — particularly Black men.