Bank of Canada holds interest rate steady as it forecasts inflation to slow to 3% this year

The Bank of Canada decided to hold its interest rate steady at 4.5 per cent on Wednesday while the impact of its previous rate hikes filters down through the economy.

The bank's move was widely anticipated by economists, because the bank had telegraphed its intention to hit pause on rate hikes after raising them eight times between March 2022 and February of this year.

After slashing its benchmark lending rate in the early days of the pandemic to keep the economy going, the bank began an aggressive campaign of rate hikes in early 2022 once inflation soared to its highest level in decades.

Canada's inflation rate peaked at more than eight per cent in June 2022, and as of February 2023 had cooled to just over five per cent. Data for March is set to be released next week and it's expected to show the rate has cooled to as low as four per cent.

That cooling is why the Bank of Canada has decided to sit on the sidelines for a while. 

In announcing its policy decision on Wednesday, the bank said in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report that it now forecasts the official inflation rate will come down to three per cent by the middle of this year, and get down to its two per cent target rate by the end of next year.

"Getting inflation down to three per cent this summer will be welcome relief for Canadians," Governor Tiff Macklem said at a press conference following the announcement. "But let me assure Canadians that we know our job is not done until we restore price stability."

"That's the destination — we are on our way and we will stay the course."

WATCH | Bank of Canada says rate hikes are working:

The bank left the door open to more rate hikes if necessary down the line, but overall the policymakers at the bank made it clear that they think the rate changes so far are having their desired effect, slowing the economy down enough to bring down inflation.

Carolyn Rogers, the bank's deputy governor, said the rate hikes already in place "will bring down consumption but that is monetary policy taking effect — bringing demand down in the economy and restoring the balance we need to get inflation back to target."

If the bank is indeed done with rate hikes, it's not a moment too soon for mortgage holders like Eddie Ko.

He and his wife bought a condo in downtown Toronto five years ago, and locked in their mortgage at the time for five years because they were worried about the uncertainty.

But that loan is up for renewal this summer, and Ko says they are being offered mortgage rates that will result in a monthly payment of up to $800 more than they've been paying every month.